NASA Panel Puts Starship Launch Count at 22 for Lunar Mission

A NASA advisory panel has offered a new, specific estimate for the number of SpaceX Starship launches required to support a human lunar landing, a figure that appears significantly higher than previous projections. The statement, made during a public meeting, is the latest in a series of shifting figures on a key part of NASA's Artemis program.

On Thursday, the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly meeting, during which panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, spoke about risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon.

Precourt said that, based on a current estimate from SpaceX, 22 Starship launches would be needed to fuel a single lunar lander. This process would involve first launching a dedicated propellant depot into low-Earth orbit, then using subsequent flights by tanker Starships to fill it with the liquid oxygen and methane required for a journey to the Moon and back. He characterized this as a significant logistical undertaking.

This figure of 22 is a marked increase from previous statements by NASA officials regarding the same task. The required number of launches has been a persistent source of uncertainty for years. In 2023, for instance, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who was then director of NASA's Human Landing System program, declined to provide a precise figure, stating, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.”

Later, she offered a range of “high single digits to the low double digits,” a figure that would suggest around a dozen flights. Other officials have referenced numbers in the “high teens” for the same task. Throughout this period, the goal has been to reduce this figure through advancements in Starship's capacity to deliver more propellant per flight.

However, some NASA officials are reportedly concerned that such improvements are not materializing quickly enough. This could jeopardize the ability of Starship to serve as the lunar lander for an Artemis mission within this decade, a critical timeline for the program's goals.

The newly stated figure of 22 launches underscores the scale of the operation required to prepare a single lander for its lunar voyage. The process would necessitate a rapid and sustained series of flights to assemble the necessary propellant in orbit before the lander could begin its journey.

The source of Precourt's specific number—whether it stems from a formal SpaceX proposal or another internal analysis—was not detailed in the panel's public discussion. The meeting did not address whether SpaceX has the capacity to conduct such a high volume of launches in a condensed timeframe, or what this estimate means for the overall schedule of the Artemis program.

The question of how many flights are needed to fuel a lunar lander has been a moving target for some time, and this latest figure represents a significant upward revision from previous estimates. The implications for the program's timeline remain an open question as NASA and SpaceX continue to work on the plan for returning humans to the Moon.